“Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”
Warren Buffett
However the run up of gold over the last two-three years and the huge run up of silver over the last one year have proved that not every one agrees with Warren Buffett.
US Dollar is currently the global standard of value. However when dollars can be easily created on a whim, it becomes a phony standard of value. Gold has been the store of wealth since Alexander’s time and continues to endure. Gold is the asset which cannot be inflated, yields nothing, and is no one’s liability. Hence gold and silver is the ultimate standard of value.
In the US, where interest rates are close to zero, the case for holding gold (which also gives no income) increases. Also when real interest rates (after inflation) become negative, which is happening in India too, the case for gold and silver becomes irresistible.
Hence keeping at least 5-10% of your portfolio into gold and silver is a must and would act as a “chaos hedge”, when the equity markets, inflation, etc are uncertain.
GOLD
1. The gold silver ratio, slumped to a 40 month low of 46.1 with the more than 90% rise in silver prices in the last one year. It has dropped below 45 times only twice in the past 25 years.
2. Disappointing economic news will continue to drive gold in the coming year.
3. The sharp rally is likely to be over, but further high could be seen in the coming year ahead.
SILVER
1. Silver has more than 35% of its demand coming from industrial uses.
2. The run up in silver is likely to continue in the current year.
3. India’s demand for silver is just starting to pick up, and this can boost silver prices more
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China’s Innovative Way of Skinning the United States!
ReplyDeleteMark Twain’s, on point, used “more than one way to skin a cat”, in A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court, follows: “she was wise, subtle, and knew more than one way to skin a cat”, that is, more than one way to get what she wanted. Thefreedictionary.com provides a conventional definition of beggar-thy’s-neighbor as: an international trade policy of competitive devaluations and increased protective barriers that one country institutes to gain at the expense of its trading partners. Under the guise of fostering ‘indigenous innovation’ in its economy, the Chinese government creatively applies its own, non-conventional, subtle version of beggar-thy-neighbor. Its version doesn’t entail the competitive devaluation of its own currency, which would enhance China’s exports and inhibits its trading partners’ exports. China’s ‘indigenous innovation’ version perpetrates an over-valuation of the currencies of one or more of its trading partners. This adversely affecting all that (those) trading partners’ trade, with all its (their) trading partners, not just trade with China. During the periods China pegged its currency to the U.S. Dollar, China’s version of beggar-thy-neighbor was 8 times as damaging to the U.S. economy as what the media refers to as “China keeping it currency undervalued”.
In November 2003, Warren Buffett in his Fortune, Squanderville versus Thriftville article recommended that America adopt a balanced trade model. The fact that advice advocating balance and sustainability, from a sage the caliber of Warren Buffett, could be virtually ignored for over seven years is unfathomable. Until action is taken on Buffett’s or a similar balanced trade model, by the powers that be, America will continue to squander time, treasure and talent in pursuit of an illusionary recovery.